Beginning of the End of Ecevit Government
M. Orhan Tarhan - Prime minister Bulent Ecevit of Turkey has done so many things, any one of which would have been enough to topple his government in a democratic country, but in a Partycracy as practiced in Turkey, Mr. Ecevit could resist against all "Get out!" calls and no one could make him go. In Turkey the President of the republic appoints a prime minister, but cannot fire him. Only the parliament can do that by giving him a vote of no-confidence. That is the way it should be in a democracy. But Turkey is a Partycracy, where the parliament is under the control of the party bosses and they would not dare firing their lord and master.

Prime Minister Ecevit's misdeeds were not all the troubles that haunt him. His failing health has become a problem for some time. Also, Mr. Ecevit has been in the power of his 81 years old, hard-headed, domineering wife who apparently never cooked , never allowed others to enter their messy household, who failed to feed him properly, and failed to take care of him as prescribed by the doctors. When he landed in the hospital, it was discovered that the dark crusts on his skin were simply dirt because he was unwashed. The Hurriyet columnist Emin Colasan reported on July 2, 2002, that here were aspects of Ecevit's conditions that he did not have the heart to report. In the hospital, they washed him, cleaned him, and fed him properly.. Mr. Ecevit must wear a steel corset because most of his bones have been thinned and hollowed . But that is not his main health problem. Mr Ecevit is in the advanced stages of dementia or senility. He must take pills that are supposed to make the connection between his brain and his tongue , so that he may be able to talk intelligibly. He must be pretty senile to be unable to react to the lousy care and restrictions of his domineering wife, as any healthy man would.

Lately, all the Turkish press was asking him to resign and to permit a full-time prime minister to take care of Turkey's urgent problems. But Mrs Rahshan Ecevit kept on rejecting these pleas by saying "We will not resign" as if she too was the prime minister. As the reasons of Ecevit's refusal to go became increasingly untenable, Husamettin Ozkan of his party (DSP) started to plan for the day Ecevit finally would resign. When these rumors seeped to Mrs. Rahshan Ecevit's ears, she was furious and she made her husband officially and publicly denounce their longtime supporter Ozkan on the CNN-Turk TV. That caused Ozkan to leave Ecevit. And the DSP. But Ozkan entrained with him 35 resignations, mortally weakening the party. Finally Ecevit lost all his majority in the Parliament. In any other democratic party, such a membership would have dispatched their ailing boss in a simple voting. But DSP is a dictatorship and no one dares doing such a thing. In stead, dissenters leave the party. It seems that Ecevit is the party.

Simultaneously with all of that, Mr. Bahceli, the boss of the National Movement Party (MHP) made an announcement that he wants a general election on November 3 and all the other parties agreed to it. Until that time the members of the coalition were afraid of general elections, like the bubonic plague, because they knew they would not even be able to overcome the minimum threshold of 10 % . Now, the suggestion by Bahceli means disaster for DSP that is expected to get only 3 - 4 % of the vote. The actual date will be fixed by the Parliament. Later on Bahceli said that if the parliament fails to pass a law to fix November 3 as the election date, he would pull from the coalition, and precipitate a government crisis. Now Ecevit will not object to the November 3 elections, but he will stay in the government until that date.

Early elections will be good for Turkey for the following reasons;

(a) It seems the only way to get rid of the senile Bulent Ecevit;

(b) It will prevent a negative outcome of the EU decision on December 12 in Copenhagen. Because of Turkish elections, it is hoped, the decision will be postponed. A new government might fulfill the Copenhagen conditions and the eventual decision would be positive. However, it would be a lot better if the parliament would act now and pass the required laws. Then Turkey may get this year a calendar for membership negotiations.

(c) In the fall, right after the U.S. congressional elections, President Bush might decide to ask Turkey for the use of bases in Turkey in the war against Iraq, and probably would ask for closer cooperation. It will be good to have a decisive Turkish government at the helm to answer that request properly. The recent visit of Mr. Wolfowitz to Turkey shed some light on this matter.

If the election is conducted without abolishing the partycracy rules, i.e. without allowing the voters to elect the candidates for the "Peoples' Representatives, the same kind of incompetent and corrupt people will be appointed by party bosses and the whole thing will be an exercise in futility. Also, few people will vote for the member parties of the present coalition and the religious parties might get enough votes to form a government. There is a possibility that Mr. Kemal Dervish and Ismail Cem might be interested to join the new group of DSP dissenters to offer to the voting public some integrity and competence in running the government. It is really not known what these gentlemen will be able to do.

If, however, by some miracle, partycracy rules are abolished and a new political parties' Law is passed by the parliament, then we will have an entirely new ball game. The Turkish Grand National Assembly will be filled with new faces, among which new leaders will emerge. Especially, if the election of the party heads becomes democratic, then most of the unsuccessful present party bosses will be voted out of office and replaced by new emerging leaders.

Right now Ankara is under the influence of a political storm. Ecevit's Democratic Left Party is disintegrating. Ismail Cem formed the "New Turkey Party" (Yeni Turkiye Partisi or YTP) Will Kemal Dervish join that new party? How will the other parties behave? What will happen if again the new religious party gets the highest majority in the election? Will the President appoint their leader as prime minister? Will that prime minister be able to form a coalition government? Will the Military permits that to stand? Will the parliament finally pass the new election law? Will Turkey be able to fulfill the Copenhagen conditions and get a calendar ? We will know the answer to these questions when the dust settles in Ankara. Only one thing is almost certain, that the political life of Bulent Ecevit will not survive the next election.

Mehmet Ali Birand writes in Milliyet and Hurriyet on 7-25-02 that Ecevit is taking with him the people around him, his party, and Turkey's likelihood of entering the EU. He is taking revenge on people he thought were part of a conspiracy against him. He said that it is now too late for Europe. Actually, he still could have helped the Parliament to pass the EU laws. He did not . This is a hypothesis by Mr.Birand with facts fitting pretty nicely in it. If there is any truth to this revenge, that would make Bulent Ecevit guilty of willful actions against the interest of the state. It would be also the breech of his oath of office. I hope it is not true, but if it is, what an awful way to go!