Opinion
October 15-31, 2002
Year 13 No. 309

Turkey Cannot Be Passive
"If Barzani and Talabani proceed under such mistaken assumptions,
they will surely end up as losers"
Fikret Bila, Milliyet (Turkey) - Ankara has been carefully following developments in northern Iraq for a long time. At last week's security summit held at the Presidential Palace, the issue was discussed in depth. It's well known that Ankara is opposed to a US operation against Iraq. However, Ankara thinks that it's very much likely that such an operation will eventually occur. During the current round of high-ranking meetings on Iraq, 1991's Gulf War and its consequences are also being looked at.

There is clearly a full consensus among the military and civilian wings of the National Security Council (MGK) concerning possible developments in northern Iraq and the country at large. The consensus reached during discussions can be summarized as follows:

Turkey cannot stand as a mere spectator of developments in this vitally important region. The military, in particular, is arguing that Turkey cannot passively watch developments from over the border. If an independent Kurdish state -- through an operation by the US or for any other reason -- is established, if the security of Iraq's Turkmens' life and goods is endangered, if PKK terrorism picks up strength and border violations increase, Turkish security forces won't simply sit and watch such incidents. Neither will it welcome migration and other developments at the border, but rather take measures to counter them.

Ankara and the bordering regions are ready for any number of possibilities, including war. Ankara will continue to oppose an operation by the US and try to bring Washington around to its point of view. However, if an operation appears inevitable and the situation in the region grows more complex, Ankara will carry out its own plan. The discussions in Ankara also serve as a sort of warning towards Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq.

Ankara wants to make clear that it would be a great mistake to imagine the existence of a "power vacuum" just because Turkey is in the midst of an elections period and the coalition seems tense due to domestic political reasons.

Ankara is also emphasizing that if northern Iraqi leaders Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani proceed under such mistaken assumptions, they will surely end up as losers. It's also pointing out that Turkey's defense reflexes are very strong and that not once in its history has it ever lacked the political leadership's determination and support towards the nation's defense. Ankara is also stressing that the US and leaders in northern Iraq shouldn't act without taking Turkey into consideration.