Islamist AKP Sweeps to Power with 34.27%
All three coalition parties eliminated. CHP emerges as main opposition.
Ugur Akinci, The Turkish Times-November 3, Sunday general elections will be remembered as another milestone like the 1950 and 1983 elections when the Turkish electorate delivered an unmistakably clear message of radical transformation of the political landscape by carrying pro-Islamist AKP (Justice and Development Party) to power with 34.27 % of the votes.

AKP rejects the "Islamist" label and claims that it is a pro-Western mainstream party with a "conservative" social agenda but also a firm commitment to liberal market economy and European Union membership. However, the deep Islamist roots of many party officials still worry the secular establishment that AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan's new moderate profile may be nothing more than a ruse ("takiyye") to gain time for further consolidation of power.

AKP will be the dominant force in the 550-seat Turkish Parliament with a 363-seat impressive majority. The last time any party had such a dominance the year was 1983 when ANAP (Motherland Party) won the elections with 45.1% and grabbed 212 of 400 seats in the Parliament. Before ANAP, the Democrat Party (DP) pulled off even a greater reversal when it unseated CHP in 1950 elections with 52% of the votes and 420 of the 487 seats.

For the first time in almost two decades, AKP might end up forming a single-party government. AKP Chairman Erdogan, however, will not be able to savor the victory of his party either as a Prime Minster or MP because he has been banned by Turkish Superior Election Board from holding any public office on account of his prior conviction for "inciting religious hatred" among the masses.

Deniz Baykal's social-democrat CHP (People's Republican Party) emerged second with 19.39% of the votes and won 178 seats in the Parliament.

Independents garnered 1% of the votes and gained 9 seats. All other parties, since they could not get over the 10% threshold, are completely eliminated from the Parliament although they represent 44% of the voters. Many well-known party leaders like Mesut Yilmaz and Demir Bahceli expressed their willingness to take the blame for the defeat and resign from their chair.

Other results: Tansu Ciller's DYP (True Path Party) 9.55%. Ciller is also expected to resign her position at this time of writing on November 4th. Devlet Bahceli's MHP 8.33%. Cem Uzan GP (Young Party) 7.24%. Pro-Kurdish DEHAP 6.21%. Mesut Yilmaz' ANAP 5.12. Pro-Islamist SP (Felicity Party) 2.48% [an Erbakan-offshoot, managed by the care-taker Recai Kutan]. DSP 1.22%. YTP 1.14%. BBP 1.02%. YP 0.93%. IP (socialist Workers Party of Dogu Perincek) 0.51%. BTP 0.47%. ODP 0.33%. LDP (Liberal Democracy Party of Besim Tibuk) 0.28. MP 0.22. TKP (Turkish Communist Party) 0.19%.

32,733, 410 voters out of a total of 41,436,538 eligible electors cast their votes in 172,143 voting polls, translating to a 78.99% voter participation. Although this may seem like a fantastically high voter participation rate with American standards it should also be recalled that Turkey had quite a few elections in the past with even higher participation rates. One should also factor in the fact that voting is mandatory for all eligible Turkish citizens and those who do not vote can be fined with a $3 penalty.

BEFORE and AFTER Picture
A comparison of the seats these parties held in the Turkish Parliament before (Oct 27) and after Nov 3 demonstrates the dimensions of the "political earthquake" a lor more vividly:

MHP (National Movement Party, 57th government partner) 124 vs. ZERO.
DSP (Democratic Left Party, 57th government senior partner) 58 vs. ZERO.
ANAP (Motherland Party, 57th government partner) 71 vs. ZERO.
DYP (True Path Party) 81 vs. ZERO?
YTP (New TurkeyParty) 58 vs. ZERO
SP (Felicity Party) 46 vs. ZERO
AKP (Justice and Development Party) 59 vs. 360?
CHP (Peoples Republican Party) 3 vs. 190?
TOTAL in Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM): 550

Regional Breakdowns
When one looks at the province totals by party, yet another picture of a very lop-sided electoral victory and defeat emerges.

AKP
Provinces in which AKP has won more than 50% of the votes: Duzce, Erzurum, Kahraman-maras, Kayseri, Konya.
Provinces in which AKP has won more than 40% of the votes: Ankara 2 District, Adiyaman, Afyon, Aksaray, Bolu, Bursa, Cankiri, Corum, Elazig, Erzincan, Gaziantep, Giresun, Gumushane, Isparta, Karabuk, Kirikkale, Kocaeli, Kutahya, Malatya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Rize, Sakarya, Samsun, Sivas, Tokat, Yozgat.
Provinces in which AKP has won less than 10% of the votes: Edirne, Hakkari, Igdir, Tunceli.

CHP
Provinces in which CHP has won more than 50% of the votes: NONE.
Provinces in which CHP has won more than 40% of the votes: NONE.
Provinces in which CHP has won more than 30% of the votes: Antalya (31.2%) since it is the province of CHP Chairman Deniz Baykal.
Provinces in which CHP has won more than 20% of the votes: Izmir Dist 1-2, Istanbul Dist 1-2-3, Ankara Dist 1, Ardahan, Artvin, Tunceli.

DEHAP
Provinces in which DEHAP has won more than 50% of the votes: Diyarbakir.
Provinces in which DEHAP has won more than 40% of the votes: Batman, Hakkari, Sirnak, Van.
Provinces in which DEHAP has won more than 30% of the votes: Agri, Igidir, Mardin, Mus, Siirt, Tunceli.

Coalition Parties DSP ANAP MHP
Ankara Dist 1: 1.27% 3.11% 8.66%.
Ankara Dist 2: 0.81 2.87 8.43.
Istanbul Dist 1: 1.1 4.87 4.81.
Istanbul Dist 2: 1.16 4.35 4.73.
Istanbul Dist 3: 1.49 4.43 5.53.
Izmir Dist 1: 1.49 4.73 7.8.
Izmir Dist 2: 1.77 3.79 7.76

Observations:
1. Coalition government's defeat is total and complete. DSP pulled only 2.93% in Zonguldak, hometown of DSP leader and PM Bulent Ecevit. ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz perhaps has less to be embarrassed about. ANAP pulled 28.47% in Rize, hometown of Yilmaz. MHP also showed an expected spike in Osmaniye (29.59%), hometown of MHP leader Devlet Bahceli.

The extremely poor showing of all 3 coalition partners in 3 largest cities demonstrates the sort of lesson the Turkish voters delivered for the economic crisis under which all Turks whimpered for the last couple of years. PM Ecevit said the government "committed suicide" by agreeing to hold the elections 18 months before its regular scheduled date, thus denying the government to harvest the fruits of the economic measures and programs that are already in place and yielding its first humble results. Obviously the Turkish electorate was too impoverished to wait for another two years to see any improvement in their lives.

The bank embezzlement and corruption scandals of late was another factor that propelled the masses to opt for the "untried alternative." PM Ecevit is as clean a politician as Turkey has ever seen. He is a man of highest personal integrity who managed to launch investigations and implement corrective action after the fact. But the damage was done and the voters did not forgive him and his coalition partners for what happened on his beat.

2. AKP's dominance across the Turkish landscape is total. The party wiped the electorate off its feet not only in deeply conservative Islamist-strongholds like Konya, Duzce and Kayseri but in Eastern Anatolia and Central Anatolia as well -- the traditional stronghold of MHP. However, one region that AKP apparently could not penetrate was the Southeast where, as expected, the pro-Kurdish DEHAP maintained its grip on ethnic votes.

3. Turkish people have given AKP the sort of sweeping mandate that DP received in 1950 and 1954, and ANAP had in 1983 elections. Clearly we are looking at one of those rare turning points in Turkish political history that will certainly have its repercussions felt for many years to come.