Pre-Election Projections
42nd Election in Turkey since 1950, 14th General
Yuksel Oktay, Special Correspondent in Turkey, The Turkish Times, October 27, 2002 - The citizens of Turkey will be casting their votes for the deputies that will represent them and also form the 58th Government since 1923. However, for the first time, one of the leading parties (AKP) will be entering the race with a chairman who has been defying the law and can not be a candidate for the Prime Minister.

The total number of parties eligible for participating in the November 3rd elections has been officially set at 18, reduced from the originally announced number of 23.This was as a result of alliances formed by several parties, abolishment of HADEP (Halkin Demokrasi Partisi- Peoples Democratic Party), which was replaced by DEHAB (Demokratik Halk Partisi - Democratic Peoples Party), considered to be advocating Kurdish rights . However, the name of HADEP will still be on the ballots that have already been printed and sent to the election centers. DEHAP was given green light only on October 15, 2002, which is an umbrella organization for Emegin Partisi, Sosyalist Demokrasi Partisi, Devrimci Sosyalist Isci Platformu, Anti Kapitalist, Torplumsal Ozgurluk Platformu, Sosyalist Emek Harekati, Isci Mucadelesi, Urun Dergisi, Gercek Dergisi, all supposedly representing "the left" in Turkey.

There are also other interesting alliances among parties which fear non-representation in the Parliament due to 10% threshold requirement. One of these alliances was recently reflected in a photograph of Tansu Ciller, the head of DYP, the True Path Party, sitting with Mehmet Ali Bayar of the Demokrat Turkiye Partisi, Demokrat Turkey Party who has joined DYP, Tugrul Turkes, the head of the Luminous Turkey Party, and Aydin Menderes, former deputy from the Welfare Party, (Aksam 16/9) supposedly showing the solidarity in "the right."

On October 15, the Election Board declared that the total number of eligible voters would be around 41 million. Of this, 3.5 million are young voters reached 18 this year.

Recently. The results of a research by ''Social Research Center - Sosyal Arastirmalar Merkezi'', SAM, indicated that the majority of people in all party affiliations refers to themselves as Moslem first, Turk second, Citizen third and after several other identities, leftist, last. Prof. Toktamis Ates in his recent article ''Search'' in Cumhuriyet, sates that 30-35 % casts their votes for the leftist or centre-left parties, another 30-35% for the right or center-right parties. The radical right, the Nationalis Movement Party, receives about 10%, which leaves approximately 20 % for the so-called ''Islamist '' parties and 5-6 % for the parties with ethnic emphasis, such as DEHAP. With this background, one may question the validity of the opinion polls and projections which show the AK party becoming the first with close to 30% of the votes, although most believe that this is a result of mebers of coalition parties who are upset with the recent economic problems.

The Grand Encounter - Buyuk Bulusma - on the Secim Arenasi with Ugur Dundar
A historic debate took place between Deniz Baykal of the Republican Peoples Party and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Justice and Development Party on October 26, Friday, on TV Channel D, moderated by the experienced and skillful anchorman Ugur Dundar, which lasted about 4 hours. After the brief introduction, Deniz Baykal made references to Erdogan's legal issues and questioning the ban for him from being a deputy, a minister or Prime Minister, recommended that he resign as the head of the AKP. Than Baykal asked ''What can I discuss with you?''

What struck me the most is that neither one of the candidates mentioned Ataturk in their discussions, although CHP was founded by the great leader. There has been much complaints by the members that the party has drifted away from Ataturk's principles. Baykal could have reminded Erdogan Ataturk's views on ''turban'' when Erdogan cliamed that his daughters were studying in the US because of bans on wearing turbans in schools, albeit under the patronage of one of his friends.

Ataturk's name is seldom mentioned in the speeches of party leaders who have scattered all over Turkey campaigning for their parties. Mesut Yilmaz was recently in Diyarbakir, where he reminded the people that the road to European Union and now to the Turkish Parliament passes through Diyarbakir..The colorful Cem Uzan of Genc Parti tells the crowd that the IMF/World Bank programs will be abolished. Deniz Baykal, the head of the Republican Party who was able to lure Kemal Dervis to his party claims that the program will be followed and that members of his party who had opposed to Kemal Devis were now thinking the same way.

Mesut Yilmaz clings his hopes on the European Union debate and describes AKP as a black box
Mesut Yilmaz, the head of Motherland Party, recently asked all parties to issue a joint declaration stating that whichever party comes to power, the will to join the European Union will be pursued. Ismail Cem, the head of the New Turkey Party, tells his audience that his party alone can take Turkey into the Union. The Report issued by the European Union, however, has not even a set a date when the negotiations on Turkey's membership would begin, which would be considered as endorsement of Turkey's long quest. Some believe that European Union will never admit Turkey as a member due to its large population and, sadly the religion of its people.

During many appearances of Party Leaders on TV programs, Mesut Yilmaz described the AKP as a black box and stated that no body seems to know much about their program, let alone the name of the possible candidate for Prime Minister. Many newspapers also carried articles stating that many in Europe who follow the Turkey have also been wondering about the new party which was created about 15 months ago with former deputies from the Felicity party. Generally the Party is considered as ''Ilimli Islam - moderate Islam'' rather than ''Fundamentalist'', but not very many people are wondering what their attitude will be if they come to power.

The Democratic Left Party and its legendary leader Bulent Ecevit
Finally, the grand icon of the Turkish politics has declared that he would resign as the head of his party after the elections. I was almost next to him when an Armenian had attempted to assassinate him during his visit to the United States in 1974 and met him during several occasions. In 1975, his party passed a law on the reduced military service which I took advantage of and voted for him in the 1999 elections.

The Nationalistic Action Party
If, in the future, people wonder why the April 2004 elections was pulled forward to November 2003, the answer would be the unfortunate plans of the Nationalistic Action Party and its leader, Devlet Bahceli, one of the three deputy prime ministers. Most predict that the party will not be able to pass the threshold and therefore, not represented in the Parliament. Cem Uzan, who the party supported, will probably take away most of the voters.

The Young party of Cem Uzan
The Young Party was created hastily this year by one of the richest man in Turkey, Cem Uzan, who, with his father and brother control two of the most profitable energy companies in Turkey, the Cukurova Elektrik and Kepez Elektrik. They also own Telsim and many other companies. When the new party could not qualify for the elections, the name of a marginal party was changed to ''Young Party'' and started a massive campaign, which according to news media, will have spent the most money for the elections. However, most pollsters do not give much hope for the parties success, despite its many promises and determined fight against the IMF and WB programs.

Necmettin Erbakan and his support for the Saadet Partisi
During one of his appearances to rally support for his mentor, the former Minister of Energy and now the head of fast disappearing Felicity party Recai Kutan, Erbakan divided the parties in Turkey into two; one the Felicity Party, two, all the rest.. Well, I do not happen to believe this, but there isn't much to write about the other parties which are marginal. Most of these will not meet the threshold requirements and fade away, as predicted by many pollsters, which are given below.

Party Advertisements
As the clocks were being turned back an hour on the early hours of Oct 27, the time for printed and visual advertising by the Parties came to an end.. The Election Board announced the dates when the party leaders will be able to make TV and radio announcements, lasting from 10 to 20 minutes. The dates has been set a Oct 27 to Nov. 2. Until today, the parties continued with the massive newspaper ad campaign some of which appear on the front pages of newspapers, but the most ambitious one is the two full page ad by the Genc Party giving a list of the candidates for the Parliament, with their profession, age and district. Other parties whose ads appear most include the National Movement Party and the True Path Party. There has been very little ad by the Republican Peoples Party which started appearing only a few days ago although they had stated that a letter campaign would be started soon, mailing some 40 million envelopes to home addresses.

FTAA's Egemen Bagis
Egemen Bagis, the President of the Federation of Turkish American Associations, chose to run as a candidate for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), to the displeasure of many of his friends who have supported him over the years. Much has been written about Egemen Bagis's decision, both pro and con, since the FTAA is known to support Ataturk's principles.

The Present State of Deputies
The elections of 1999 resulted in the representation of 5 parties in the Parliament, with 3 parties forming the coalition and 2 parties the opposition. As we approach the November 2002 elections, the number of parties in the Parliament has grown to 11 as a result of deputy transfers, which happens only in Turkey, and the breakup of parties. The parties represented in the Parliament and the number of deputies is given in the table below:

Party Oct. 27 Comments

MHP 124 Part of 57th Gov
DYP 81 Opposition party
ANAP 71 Part of 57th Gov
AKP 59 Breakaway from SP
DSP 58 Part of 57th Gov and first in 1999
YTP 58 Breakaway from DSP
SP 46 Members from closed Welfare Party
BBP 4
YP 3 Breakaway from DSP
ÖDP 3
CHP 3 Party founded by Ataturk
Independent 26
Vacant 14

Total 550

Public Opinion Polls and Pojections
Many pollsters, some new, have published the results of their public opinion polls and projections for the Nov 3rd elections, including Deutche Bank. Akart, a new comer, estimates down to the tenth decimal.

Here are some of these as of October 27, 2002.

One of the most interesting towns in Turkey is Safranbolu, now a Municipality of Karabuk near the Black Sea coast.

Vatan newspaper recently published the results of a poll taken among 916 voters.

The results are included in the table below.

The newspapers state that in almost every election, the results have mirrored the polls taken in Safranbolu. Very interesting for a town once visited by the famous New York Times correspondent Stephen Kinzer who wrote on the 75th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey from this historical town.

A column has also been provided in the table for the benefit of Turkish Times readers to write down the November election results.