Sailing Through the Dire Straits
Turkish ships will go through some rather dire straits during this holiday month of December. For many Turkish observers the phrase "dire straits" probably sounds like the standard fare until one takes a peek at what's on Ankara's plate.

On December 12 and 13, the European Union (EU) Copenhagen Summit will admit Greek-Cyprus as a new member and perhaps also extend a date to Turkey to start discussing the date on which Turkey's membership process could begin. Yes, "a date for a date," or "an appointment for an appointment." And at the end Turkey may not be admitted to EU at all, raising serious doubts in many minds as to whether EU is really ready to bridge the widening gap between the Christian West and the Muslim East. Secular Turkey is the best candidate EU has got to form a bridge between these increasingly withdrawing universes.

A second and related heavy agenda item concerns the prospect of a resolution (if not peace) in Cyprus. United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has started the ball rolling on November 11 by unveiling a new blueprint that fully recognizes many of the Turkish-Cypriot points while, however, leaving the crucial economic nerve center of Guzelyurt (Morphou) in Greek-Cypriot hands.

In a marked departure from its predecessors, the AKP government led by PM Abdullah Gul and (in a de facto fashion) AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has not only linked the fate of Cyprus to Turkey's EU application but also launched an eleventh-hour diplomatic offensive to win the closed hearts and recalcitrant minds in Europe. Logging tens of thousands of miles crisscrossing the European capitals, Erdogan and his lieutenants have tried earnestly to turn the tide of history around in Turkey's favor. There are those who detect a sinister agenda underneath Erdogan's breathless charm campaign - that he wants to enter the EU so that he can re-activate his "Islamic agenda" under EU protection. But still AKP and Erdogan are the best cards Turkey has got going this late in the continental poker game.

As Erdogan is getting ready to meet with President Bush at the White House on December 10, the enormity of the opportunities and risks revolving around this process is obvious. By accepting Turkey into the EU, the West can buy the best insurance possible against the "Clash of Civilizations" becoming a nasty reality. The widening chasm of misunderstanding and suspicion between the Christian-West and Muslim-East can be bridged by proving that the dividing line passes in between democracies and authoritarian regimes, and not religious traditions. To that purpose ATAA as well as a number of Turkish and Turkish-American NGOs made their rounds along the Embassy Row in Washington D.C. arguing the point with great enthusiasm and consistency.

The other urgent agenda item is Iraq. Senior U.S. officials have already converged on Ankara negotiating the terms and conditions of the Turkish support in a would-be campaign against Saddam Hussein. Turkey, as always, is again willing to prove that she is a part of the alliance of Western democracies. But just like in the case of Cyprus and EU membership, she does not want to be left all alone at the end of the day, stuck with the expensive bill of her trust and belief in the Western way of doing things. Both the US and EU now do have an opportunity to prove that allied nations' collective interests can be served well through traditional ties of friendship and partnership.

As Turkish-Americans we do support the entry of both Cyprus (including the Turkish- and Greek-Cypriot component states) and Turkey into the EU, and the peaceful resolution of the crisis in Iraq. The fact that there is a pro-EU one-party government in power in Turkey, fortified with the fresh mandate of the November 3 elections, may work to finally solve both the Cyprus and EU conundrums, with principled help from the United States. Our hopes and efforts are certainly focused in that direction.