Last Tango in Cyprus
Sami Kohen, Milliyet - The two leaders of Cyprus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Rauf Denktas and Greek Cypriot leader Glafcos Clerides, will in the end have to return to the negotiations table. With the entire world waiting for their next moves, they can't avoid getting back together.

They will hold a series of meetings to discuss UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's Cyprus plan. The important question this time is whether the two leaders will be able to reach a settlement before Feb. 28, the date the EU set as a deadline at last week's Copenhagen summit. Although our past experiences preclude optimism on these new gatherings, one can't deny that there are new factors this time, which are likely to force these leaders to try harder for a permanent solution than they have previously.

Let's take a look at the picture: Since the Greek side believes that its EU membership is a done deal, it is unlikely to make concessions for the sake of a settlement.

Meanwhile, the Denktas administration believes that if the Greek Cypriots are admitted to the EU, two separate states might continue their existence on the island. Despite significant opposition from his own Turkish Cypriots, it's well known that Denktas thinks that the TRNC might integrate with Turkey in the absence of a solution. In fact, he's not terribly concerned about what to do if the two sides fail to settle. We might think that the sides are quite satisfied with the status quo and so lack a strong motivation to return to the bargaining table. However, the reality isn't so simple. This time, there are some new factors which will force the two parties to make certain concessions:

1) The European Union, United Nations and United States will all step up pressure on the Greek Cypriot administration to settle with the Turkish side. The EU doesn't want a divided nation amongst its ranks.

2) The Greek Cypriots won't be satisfied either if they join the EU on their own, since this will only escalate problems on the island.

The presence of Turkish soldiers to their north is actually a very sore sticking point.

3) The Turkish Cypriots are extremely disappointed by the absence of a solution. This might spur an exodus to new territories, significantly changing the demographics of the north in the process.

4) The TRNC will continue its official existence under the guardianship of Turkey, but it would become even more isolated in the international arena.

5) Turkey might lose the support of the EU, the UN and the US.

The parties on Cyprus should take these factors into consideration. This might be the last chance for Denktas and Clerides, two old and veteran politicians, or, in a phrase, their 'last tango'.